Three phases. No black boxes. Every step narrated.
We show our work because the work is the proof. Below is the exact methodology we use with every carrier engagement — the same logic you would apply yourself if you had climate-risk actuarial expertise in-house.
Climate Exposure Audit
Mapping what your underwriting criteria cannot yet see
We begin by reading your existing underwriting guidelines the way a climate scientist reads a weather model — looking for the gaps between the risk your actuaries priced and the risk the physical world has already repriced. Most mid-market carriers are underwriting 2015 wildfire frequency at 2025 ignition conditions. The audit makes that delta legible in dollar terms.
Methodology: Audit Protocol
- 1Extract and map all current underwriting criteria against IPCC AR6 physical risk classifications (acute and chronic)
- 2Cross-reference line-of-business exposure concentrations against NOAA Climate Normals 1991–2020 vs. 2001–2030 shift data
- 3Identify underpriced peril clusters: wildfire, inland flood, heat-driven liability, hurricane intensification corridors
- 4Score each underwriting criterion on a 4-point Climate Alignment Index (CAI) from Unaware to Embedded
- 5Produce a gap register: each row names a criterion, its current CAI score, the regulatory standard it falls short of, and the estimated premium leakage
Deliverable
Climate Alignment Index report + Gap Register (Excel + narrative PDF)
Timeline
Weeks 1–3
Portfolio Stress-Testing
Running your book through the scenarios regulators will run next year
Once we know where the exposure is, we stress-test the portfolio against three forward-looking climate scenarios aligned to TCFD and IAIS guidance: an orderly 1.5°C transition, a disorderly 2°C transition, and a hot-house 3°C+ world. The output is not a theoretical exercise — it is a combined-ratio projection your CFO can take to the board.
Methodology: Scenario Stress-Test
- 1Calibrate catastrophe model adjustments using RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 hazard intensification factors by peril and geography
- 2Layer transition risk (stranded asset exposure in investment portfolio, liability tail from carbon-intensive insureds) onto physical risk baseline
- 3Run three scenario sets against current premium, reserve, and reinsurance structures
- 4Calculate the combined-ratio impact at 1-in-10, 1-in-50, and 1-in-200 return periods for each scenario
- 5Identify reinsurance gaps: where current treaty structures leave the carrier exposed above their stated risk appetite
Deliverable
Scenario Stress-Test Report with combined-ratio projections + reinsurance gap analysis
Timeline
Weeks 4–7
Regulatory Reporting & Repricing Roadmap
Turning the analysis into filings, frameworks, and a defensible pricing posture
The final phase converts everything we've built into three deliverables: a regulatory submission package mapped to NAIC Climate Risk Disclosure Survey requirements, a revised underwriting guideline framework with ESG criteria embedded at the criterion level (not appended in a footnote), and a 12-month repricing roadmap that sequences which lines and geographies to address first without triggering adverse selection.
Methodology: Reporting & Roadmap
- 1Draft NAIC Climate Risk Disclosure Survey responses with supporting quantitative exhibits from Phase I and II
- 2Map disclosures to TCFD framework for reinsurers with treaty-level Net-Zero commitments
- 3Rewrite underwriting guidelines to embed climate criteria at decision-node level (not as a separate ESG addendum)
- 4Sequence repricing by line, geography, and renewal cohort to minimize adverse selection and manage agent relationships
- 5Build a 12-month implementation calendar with internal owner assignments and regulatory milestone dates
Deliverable
NAIC Disclosure Package + Revised Underwriting Guidelines + 12-Month Repricing Roadmap
Timeline
Weeks 8–12
Three conversations. One shared problem.
Climate risk in insurance does not arrive as a single crisis. It arrives as three separate conversations happening simultaneously — regulatory, portfolio, and pricing — in three different rooms. We speak fluently in all three.
Chief Underwriting Officers
You received your first NAIC climate risk disclosure letter six weeks ago. Your legal team forwarded it. Your actuaries said they'd "look into it." Nobody has looked into it. The renewal season starts in 90 days.
Regulatory deadline: 2025 NAIC Climate Risk Disclosure Survey — carriers above $100M GWP required to file.
We work with CUOs to produce a filing-ready NAIC submission in 12 weeks while simultaneously building the internal underwriting framework that makes next year's filing a documentation exercise rather than a fire drill.
Sustainability Directors
Your treaty portfolio carries significant exposure to cedants who have not modeled physical climate risk into their pricing. You've committed to Net-Zero alignment by 2030 in your investor materials. Your treaty underwriters are still using 2010 catastrophe model baselines.
IAIS ICP 25 climate risk supervisory guidance now requires reinsurers to demonstrate portfolio-level climate scenario analysis.
We build treaty-level climate stress-test frameworks that map cedant portfolios against TCFD scenarios, giving your underwriting team the language to renegotiate treaty terms and your sustainability team the data to satisfy investor ESG reporting.
Board Members & CEOs
Your combined ratio has held between 94 and 97 for a decade. Your wildfire-exposed book in the Western states is priced on loss history through 2019. You know — and your reinsurers are beginning to say out loud — that the next five years will not look like the last five.
Wildfire AAL in Western states has increased 340% since 2017 under current climate trajectories.
We run a concentrated portfolio stress-test against RCP 8.5 wildfire scenarios, identify the specific ZIP codes and policy cohorts driving tail exposure, and build a repricing roadmap that sequences renewals to minimize adverse selection while restoring margin.
A 30-minute call. A complete picture of your exposure.
The diagnostic call is not a sales call. It is a working session. Bring your most recent underwriting guidelines and a rough sense of your top five geographic exposures. We will return with a written summary of the three highest-priority gaps we identified — regardless of whether you engage us further.
Book a Portfolio Review
Tell us about your carrier so we can prepare the right questions for your diagnostic call.
ESG Underwriting Audit Checklist
The 47-point checklist we use in Phase I audits — adapted for internal use by underwriting and compliance teams. Covers physical risk mapping, transition risk criteria, regulatory alignment, and reinsurance treaty review.
- 47 scored audit criteria
- NAIC disclosure cross-reference
- IPCC AR6 peril classification map
- Reinsurance treaty review checklist
Diagnostic call includes a written summary regardless of next steps
Typical engagement runs 12 weeks start to final deliverable